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Minneapolis Real Estate – Is the Worst Really Over?
July 20, 2010 by Financemyhome · Leave a Comment
Minneapolis Real Estate – Is the Worst Really Over?By Lisa Marie Brown
On the surface, things are looking pretty good in Minneapolis right now. Forbes recently named it the Most Affordable Place to Live Well in the United States, citing the overwhelming sense of corporate social responsibility in the Twin Cities, and the high quality of life with plenty of access to arts and leisure activities. While there is a lot of anecdotal evidence bouncing around the web that the housing crisis in Minneapolis has come and gone, in actuality many factors, such as high unemployment, and uncast option adjustable rate mortgages lend to a bleaker outlook on the Minneapolis real estate market in the coming year.
Although the federal stimulus created 14,315 jobs in Minnesota this year, unemployment remains at 7.6% statewide, and only slightly lower at 7.1% for the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington metropolitan area. Foreclosures are by no means as frequent as they are elsewhere in the country, but they remain at 6.47% in the state of Minnesota, and no doubt contributed to the 6 bank failures that occurred in 2009.
What is perhaps most disturbing is that the worst has yet to come. Option adjustable rate mortgages, or option ARMs, are mortgages in which the homeowner pays a portion of the interest each month, and the remainder compounds on the principal. Once the mortgage amount reaches a certain ceiling, the option ARM recasts, and the homeowner pays a balloon payment, which reflects the actual amount of both the interest and the principal. According to Business Week, “Stock and bond analysts estimate that as many as 1.3 million borrowers took out as much as $389 billion in option ARMs in 2004 and 2005.” What’s most frightening is that, according to the ratings agency Fitch, 88% of option ARMs (studied nationwide) have not yet been recast. This means that 88% of homeowners with option adjustable rate mortgages have not yet reached their balloon payment, and that interest is continuing to compound on the principal.
But while the coming year looks bleak as the option adjustable rate mortgages recast and more houses go into foreclosure, the end is in sight and Minneapolis’ housing market will recover strongly. The Housing Opportunity Index shows that in the third quarter of 2009, almost 84% of homes sold were affordable to those earning the area’s median income, which is $83,900. The National Association of Home Builders, which developed the index, assumes that a family can spend 28% of their income on a house payment, and this is where the term “affordable” comes into play. This means that as long as the unemployment rate steadies, these families will be unlikely to default on their mortgage payment and go into foreclosure. So while we have yet to see the option ARM mortgages, or bad loans, recast and go into default, the loans that are being made right now are being made to people who can afford to pay them for a long time.
The solution to the Minneapolis housing crisis may require more time than anyone expected. While everyone hopes that the worst is over, we may not have seen the end of it yet.
Lisa Brown is a Sales and Marketing Associate for Almost Home USA (Corporate Housing Minneapolis), a corporate housing company whose goal is to provide such excellent experiences that clients feel almost home.
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